How Should You Play That Ace In Your Hand?

A unique 3-minute memorization technique from a PROFESSIONAL poker coach

By Lucy Kim

This is an actual hand played out during this year’s WSOP Ladies Event.  In-the-money, approximately 80 players remained when this occurred:

 Your chip stack is at about 30 times the big blind.  The opponent to your right, who had been moved to your table about 20 minutes ago, has about 25 times the big blind.  At your 10-handed table, you are in the big blind.  The action is folded to the small blind  who flat-calls.  After you look down at an A6 off-suit, you check.  The flop comes A-2-2 rainbow, and the small blind decides to push all in.  What should you do?  To view the answer, click here.

 Your best move would be to fold.  Why?  Because in a 10-handed game, there’s a 75% chance that your opponent also has an ace. 

See the chart below:

# of players            % of time another player

at the table             will not have an ace in hand*

 

2                                 87%

3                                 77%

4                                 67%

5                                 57%

6                                 50%

7                                 45%

8                                 35%

9                                 30%

10                              25%

 

The chart is courtesy of professional poker coach Thomas Gallagher.**  If you have an Ace in your hand, you need to know the percentage of time when no one else has an Ace in their hand.  Gallagher has devised a simple way for poker players to memorize the chart:

 1. Memorize the top, middle and bottom %:  87% - 50% - 25%.

 2. Now start at the top and memorize down to 50%. 

 Notice the "pattern": 87% 77% 67% 57%......50%.

"87-77-67-57-50"...good, now..

 3. Memorize the bottom half starting with 50%.

50% - 45% - 35% -30% - we know the bottom is 25%.

"50-45-35-30-25"...the only problem is the 30, which does not fit the pattern.

Again, 50-45-35-30-25.

 

4. Now from the top: 87-77-67-57-50-45-35-30-25!

 

After 2-3 times, you should have all the percentages memorized. 

So when you have an Ace with 7 players, recall: 87-77-67-57-50-45.

45% chance NO OTHER PLAYER HAS an ACE IN HAND.

In the above hand scenario, after you incorrectly make the call, your opponent flips over her AK, and she wins with her king kicker.  The Ace percentage chart is a nifty tool, so use this data to help make your future play decisions.

* Percentages rounded for easier memorization.

** Thomas Gallagher, the founder of www.thegamblingschool.com, has been professionally coaching poker, blackjack, craps and other gaming activities for 20 years.  He was a guest poker instructor at Johnny Chan Poker Seminar and conducts private and group lessons.